Do Change Management Models Actually Work?

The Question

Your organisation is about to embark on a significant change — a restructure, a digital transformation, a cultural shift. Your change management team recommends following Kotter's 8-Step Model. A consultant proposes ADKAR. Someone in the room cites the sobering statistic that "70% of change efforts fail." Before committing significant resources to a specific methodology, you need to know: do these models actually improve the odds of success? And is the failure rate really as catastrophic as everyone claims?

Key Finding

The dominant change management models are built more on consulting experience and face validity than on rigorous empirical testing. No prescribed sequential model — Kotter, Lewin, or ADKAR — has demonstrated superiority over alternatives in controlled research. The widely cited claim that "70% of change initiatives fail" is not supported by credible evidence. When change outcomes are carefully evaluated, most change efforts achieve at least partial success.

The Bottom Line

The dominant change management models are built more on consulting experience and face validity than on rigorous empirical testing. No prescribed sequential model — Kotter, Lewin, or ADKAR — has demonstrated superiority over alternatives in controlled research. The widely cited claim that "70% of change initiatives fail" is not supported by credible evidence. When change outcomes are carefully evaluated, most change efforts achieve at least partial success.

What You Can Do